Tag Archives: ai

Adapting to Change: Mental Health and the Future of Work

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Even though I don’t go out or socialize in person much anymore, I still keep busy. I was recently demonetized on Medium. No explanation and no way to appeal. Really irritated me as I was making some decent money.

In some ways, they did me a favor forcing me back into Word Press on a regular basis. Even though I haven’t been posting much over the past year or so, I was still getting a decent amount of audience. Some days I would check, and I would have 40 or so views on a single day even though I hadn’t posted in weeks. Maybe the word is getting out there.

Sure, I made more money on Medium. But I got better audiences on Word Press. But I guess nothing lasts forever. There were also a lot of complainers and whiners on Medium. I don’t miss them. First World problems in most cases. I swear people like that never had to deal with bullies and setbacks as kids.

I was bullied a lot as a kid. Ended up in several fights, most of which I lost. But I’m glad I went through it. Made me confident in my ability to survive and adapt, especially as I got older. No I didn’t enjoy it at the time. But I thank God every day I dealt with some hardship as a kid during prosperous times.

I was born in 1980 and spent most of my formative years in the 1990s. We still had the latch key kind of things. I had my freedom, like most small-town kids. And the grownups usually let the kids solve their own problems unless we got too destructive or violent. Much of that behavior would be considered child abuse these days.

Personally, I think real abuse is sheltering kids from the consequences of their actions, not teaching them how to cook or do basic repairs to household items or never letting them solve their own problems. Hitting your kids isn’t the only form of child abuse out there. I think not preparing them for adulthood and its ups and downs is every bit as abusive as punching them in the face.

In some ways I’m glad I didn’t have kids or get married. But that is mostly because of the schizophrenia. While I don’t particularly enjoy living with my elderly parents, I know I would enjoy living in a nursing home (been there, done that) or being homeless would be even worse. It’s a blow to my pride that I live with my parents after being on my own for seventeen years. But I try not to complain, at least publicly, because I know it could a lot worse.

I’ve always taken mental health seriously. Even more so now with everything changing so rapidly. I’m under no delusion that I’ll ever make enough money to support myself off writing. Vast majority of even paid writers don’t make above poverty level wages off writing alone.

I’m kind of burned out on computer games. And almost every time I try to socialize with anyone outside of immediate family, these people are in awful moods all the time. Nothing can make most people happy.

These people are going to be really unhappy in a few years when AI and automation take more and more jobs, especially since we have almost nothing for social safety nets. Rest assured; it will happen. A lot of people will eventually lose their jobs to AI and automation. I’ve been trying to tell people this for over a dozen years. About the only people who listened are my retired elderly parents and my best friend. She’s always grumpy and grouchy now, it’ll only get worse when she loses her good paying job she’s complains about almost daily.

I know it sounds like I don’t sympathize with these people whose jobs are on the robot chopping block. But you would be wrong. I lost my career and everything I worked for many years ago due to my mental illness. I did everything right; worked hard in school, stayed away from drugs, stayed away from credit cards, stayed out of trouble, etc. And I still lost everything.

Millions of people will find themselves in the same boat within several years. Not their fault a machine can probably do their jobs better than they ever could. Soon they will be cheaper too. In my case I lost my career in my twenties rather than my forties when I would have had a mortgage, a couple kids to send to college, and a retirement to save for.

In spite being surrounded by grouches, I’m looking forward to Christmas. I didn’t ask for any special gifts. I think a large dinner of spiral ham, stuffing, green bean casserole, etc. is enough of a gift. Don’t know how many Christmases I have left, but I intend to really enjoy this one. It’s just too bad that it doesn’t snow much down here in Oklahoma City.

The Future and AI and Automation from A Mentally Ill Point of View

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Been studying up on Automation, Robotics, and AI for most of the last year and a half. At least, that’s when I got serious into tech stocks. Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD were some of the big ones I got in on. Made good profits so far with all of them but AMD.

Been watching a lot of videos on AI and Automation on YouTube the last several months. My favorites include David Shapiro, Julia McCoy, Issac Arthur, Peter Diamandis, Ray Kurzweil, among others. Currently reading the recently released ‘The Singlualrity is Nearer’ by Ray Kurzweil. Reread the original ‘Singularity is Near’ back in the winter.

It’s insane how fast all of this is unfolding. Makes me think the real bottle neck in AI and Automation advances won’t be programming, learning models, or even microchips anymore. I’m now thinking the real bottlenecks will involve physical infrastructure for data centers and even availability of electrical power and water.

A friend of mine works for a landlord who already uses AI for much of their office work and tenant services. She thinks she probably will be replaced by automation eventually. But she’s been preparing for an out for years just in case something like mass technological unemployment does happen.

As it is, I’ve been out of the job market since 2012 due to schizophrenia. Even though I found minimum wage working too overwhelming for my illness to manage (I used to violently vomit from the anxiety of going to work every day when I worked in retail and fast food), I have found other things to occupy my days. Just because I’m on disability doesn’t mean I drink beer and father children I can’t take care of. I’d love to see that trope die.

Over the years of not having a regular job, I’ve taught myself several subjects. Namely literature, writing, economics, finance, history, some science, studied on tech advances, futurism, etc. Got some of my Spanish up to date. Foreign language is one of those ‘use it or lose it’ kind of deals.

One thing I did teach myself was investing. Turns out I’m pretty good at it. I do think most people, certainly here in the US, are too short-term thinking to succeed in the market. I’ve seen it in my own family. I’m learning from their mistakes.

I originally went to college with the idea of going into medical research. Turns out that AI can do research pretty well. It can also write reports and even short stories pretty well due to ChatGPT. AI can do a lot of the academic work I wanted to do in my youth already. It’s not going to get any worse.

Even my skills with picking investments are surpassed by AI. And most of the companies with huge gains and profits the last couple of years are AI and Automation companies.

Companies are laying off thousands of workers even though they are profitable. I’m dead convinced these jobs are being automated away. Much like the factory jobs of decades ago, white collar office jobs are starting to get cut.

I do think the far future will be a really cool and excellent place. Yet, we seem to have zero plan as how to get there with as little disruption as possible. I’m convinced we are going through upheavals and changes now as big as the Agriculture and Industrial Revolutions of past eras.

I think there will a lot of pain involved in this transition. And hardly any politician is talking about this publicly. I saw that Greece recently legalized a six-day work week. That’s not even going to be relevant in five to ten years once automation is good enough to take the majority of jobs.

Don’t think for one moment that businesses will keep on human employees if they don’t have to, certainly not in the numbers they currently do. The fact that slavery was legal and accepted for most of civilized history alone proves bosses don’t want to pay workers unless they absolutely have to. Now, the slaves will be algorithms, chatbots, AI, machines, and robots.

Speaking of robots, Tesla recently announced they will start building humanoid robots to serve as common laborers. This isn’t science fiction or fake news. This is happening right here and right now. And most people are still in denial or don’t realize just how good the tech already is.

The bottlenecks of power requirements will slow down the real-world implementation, at least temporarily. Self-driving cars and trucks are already here. Heck, even my brother owns a Tesla with self-driving capacities.

Satellites and drones are already doing agriculture work. A farmer friend of mine back in Nebraska has owned a self-driving tractor that can navigate by GPS for at least five years. The future is already here, it’s just not evenly spread out yet.

As far as power goes, the growth in solar and wind power implantation has gone almost parabolic in the last several years. Next generation nuclear is already being prototyped in many places. And China has already built some thorium powered nuclear plants. Pity the USA and USSR gave up on thorium years ago.

We have all this science and tech advancing at breakneck pace. Something new comes out almost every day now. Our science and tech are pointing us to the future. It’s the social and politcal attitudes that want to drag us back into the ‘good ol days.’

Screw the good old days. They sucked for almost everyone. That is unless one was rich, a ruler, or a member of a privileged class and race. I swear our science and tech says The Jetsons while our politics are screaming Huckleberry Finn. It’s an insane paradox.

I grew up in the pre internet days. I’ll be damned before I go back.

AI and Psychopharmacology

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The Current Challenges in Psychopharmacology

Developing new psychiatric medications involves several challenges. Traditional methods are time-consuming and expensive, often taking over a decade and billions of dollars to bring a new drug to market. The high failure rate in clinical trials further complicates the process, with many potential drugs failing due to inefficacy or adverse side effects. Additionally, the complex and heterogeneous nature of mental health disorders means that understanding the underlying biological mechanisms and identifying suitable drug targets are inherently difficult tasks.

AI’s Potential Contributions

Drug Discovery and Design

AI can significantly streamline the initial stages of drug discovery. Machine learning algorithms can analyze extensive datasets, including genetic information, biochemical pathways, and clinical trial results, to identify potential drug candidates. For instance, deep learning models can predict the binding affinity of small molecules to specific receptors in the brain, thus identifying promising compounds for further testing. By leveraging AI, researchers can quickly sift through vast chemical libraries and simulate interactions, significantly reducing the time and cost involved in traditional drug discovery methods.

Understanding Biological Mechanisms

Mental health disorders often involve complex interactions between genetic, environmental, and neurobiological factors. AI can help unravel these complexities by integrating and analyzing diverse datasets. For example, machine learning algorithms can analyze genomic, transcriptomic, and proteomic data to identify biomarkers associated with specific psychiatric conditions. This can lead to a better understanding of disease mechanisms and the identification of novel therapeutic targets. Additionally, AI can aid in the development of personalized medicine approaches, tailoring treatments based on an individual’s unique genetic and biological profile.

Predicting Treatment Response

One of the significant challenges in psychopharmacology is the variability in treatment response among patients. AI can address this issue by developing predictive models that identify which patients are likely to respond to a particular medication. These models can analyze data from electronic health records, including demographic information, clinical history, and genetic data, to predict treatment outcomes. Such personalized treatment strategies can improve efficacy, reduce trial-and-error prescribing, and minimize adverse effects, ultimately leading to better patient outcomes.

Optimizing Clinical Trials

AI can also revolutionize the clinical trial process by improving patient recruitment, optimizing study design, and enhancing data analysis. Machine learning algorithms can identify suitable candidates for clinical trials by analyzing electronic health records and other patient data, ensuring a more targeted and efficient recruitment process. Furthermore, AI can assist in designing adaptive clinical trials that modify parameters in real-time based on interim results, potentially speeding up the process and increasing the likelihood of success. AI-driven data analysis can also provide deeper insights into trial outcomes, identifying subtle patterns and correlations that might be missed by traditional statistical methods.

Case Studies and Examples

Several initiatives and studies already demonstrate the potential of AI in psychopharmacology. For instance, Insilico Medicine, a biotechnology company, uses AI-driven platforms to accelerate drug discovery and development. Their AI algorithms analyze vast amounts of biological data to identify novel drug candidates and predict their efficacy and safety. In one notable example, Insilico Medicine used AI to identify a new drug candidate for a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in just 46 days, highlighting the potential for rapid drug discovery.

In the realm of mental health, AI has been used to analyze brain imaging data to identify biomarkers associated with depression and other psychiatric disorders. For example, researchers at Stanford University used machine learning algorithms to analyze functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, identifying brain activity patterns that predict treatment response to antidepressants. Such studies underscore the potential of AI to provide deeper insights into the neurobiological underpinnings of mental health disorders and guide the development of more effective treatments.

Ethical and Practical Considerations

While the potential of AI in psychopharmacology is immense, several ethical and practical considerations must be addressed. Data privacy and security

are paramount concerns, given the sensitive nature of medical and genetic information. Ensuring that patient data is anonymized and securely stored is essential to prevent misuse and maintain trust in AI-driven research.

Additionally, the algorithms and models developed using AI must be transparent and interpretable. Black-box models, where the decision-making process is not easily understood, can lead to skepticism and resistance from both clinicians and patients. Researchers and developers must prioritize the creation of explainable AI systems that provide clear rationale for their predictions and recommendations.

There is also the risk of bias in AI models. If the training data used to develop these models is not representative of the broader population, the resulting predictions and insights may be biased, potentially leading to disparities in treatment effectiveness across different demographic groups. Ensuring diversity and inclusivity in training datasets is crucial to mitigate this risk.

Future Directions and Opportunities

The next five years present numerous opportunities for AI to further transform psychopharmacology. As AI technologies continue to evolve, several promising directions could enhance their impact on mental health medication development.

Integration of Multimodal Data

Combining different types of data, such as genetic, epigenetic, proteomic, imaging, and clinical data, can provide a more comprehensive understanding of psychiatric disorders. AI can facilitate the integration and analysis of these multimodal datasets, uncovering complex interactions and identifying novel drug targets.

Collaborative Research Platforms

Creating collaborative platforms where researchers, clinicians, and AI experts can share data and insights can accelerate progress in psychopharmacology. Initiatives like the UK Biobank, which provides access to a vast repository of genetic and health data, can be leveraged by AI researchers to advance the development of new treatments. Collaborative efforts can also help standardize data collection and analysis methods, improving the reliability and reproducibility of AI-driven research.

AI-Driven Repurposing of Existing Drugs

Drug repurposing, where existing medications are used to treat new conditions, is an area where AI can make significant contributions. By analyzing existing data on approved drugs, AI algorithms can identify new therapeutic uses for these medications, potentially providing faster and more cost-effective treatment options for psychiatric disorders. This approach has already shown promise in identifying potential treatments for COVID-19 and other diseases.

Patient Monitoring and Real-Time Feedback

AI can also play a role in the ongoing monitoring of patients receiving psychiatric medications. Wearable devices and mobile health applications can collect real-time data on patients’ symptoms, medication adherence, and side effects. AI algorithms can analyze this data to provide clinicians with timely feedback, allowing for more dynamic and personalized treatment adjustments. This continuous monitoring can enhance the effectiveness of treatments and improve patient outcomes.

Conclusion

The potential for AI to revolutionize the development of new psychiatric medications within the next five years is substantial. By accelerating drug discovery, improving our understanding of biological mechanisms, predicting treatment responses, and optimizing clinical trials, AI offers a powerful toolset for addressing the complex challenges in psychopharmacology.

However, realizing this potential requires careful consideration of ethical and practical challenges, including data privacy, model transparency, and bias mitigation. By fostering collaborative research efforts and integrating diverse datasets, the field can harness the full power of AI to develop more effective and personalized treatments for mental health disorders.

As AI continues to advance, its role in psychopharmacology is likely to expand, offering hope for more rapid and effective solutions to some of the most pressing mental health challenges. The next five years may indeed see significant breakthroughs, driven by the synergy of AI and psychopharmacology, ultimately improving the lives of millions of individuals suffering from psychiatric disorders.

Possible Uses for AI and Mental Illness Treatments

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Artificial Intelligence (AI) is revolutionizing numerous fields, and mental health care is no exception. The application of AI in mental health treatment is an emerging frontier that holds promise for significantly enhancing the way mental illnesses are diagnosed, treated, and managed. AI-driven approaches offer innovative solutions that can lead to personalized, efficient, and accessible mental health care. This essay explores the potential treatments for mental illness made possible by AI research, focusing on diagnostic tools, personalized treatment plans, therapeutic interventions, and ongoing monitoring and support.

Diagnostic Tools

One of the most promising applications of AI in mental health is in the realm of diagnosis. Traditionally, diagnosing mental illnesses relies heavily on subjective assessments and self-reported symptoms, which can be influenced by various biases and may not always be accurate. AI can enhance diagnostic accuracy by analyzing vast amounts of data from various sources, including electronic health records, genetic information, and even social media activity.

Machine learning algorithms can identify patterns and correlations that may not be evident to human clinicians. For example, AI can analyze speech patterns, facial expressions, and other behavioral indicators to detect signs of depression, anxiety, or other mental health conditions. Natural language processing (NLP) techniques can be used to assess the content and sentiment of patients’ spoken or written communication, providing additional insights into their mental state. These AI-driven diagnostic tools can serve as early warning systems, flagging potential issues before they become severe and facilitating timely intervention.

Personalized Treatment Plans

AI has the potential to revolutionize the development of personalized treatment plans for individuals with mental health conditions. By leveraging data from diverse sources, including patient history, genetic information, and real-time monitoring data, AI can help tailor treatments to the specific needs and characteristics of each patient.

Machine learning models can predict how patients might respond to different treatments based on their unique profiles. This can include pharmacological treatments, such as selecting the most effective medication with the fewest side effects, as well as non-pharmacological interventions like cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) or mindfulness practices. AI can also optimize treatment plans by continuously learning from patient outcomes and adjusting recommendations accordingly. This dynamic, data-driven approach can enhance the efficacy of treatments and reduce the trial-and-error process often associated with mental health care.

Therapeutic Interventions

AI-driven therapeutic interventions are another exciting development in the treatment of mental illnesses. Chatbots and virtual therapists, powered by AI, can provide immediate support and therapeutic guidance to individuals in need. These AI-based systems can engage in conversations with patients, offering cognitive-behavioral therapy techniques, stress reduction strategies, and other therapeutic interventions.

For instance, AI chatbots like Woebot and Wysa use NLP to interact with users, providing them with evidence-based techniques to manage symptoms of depression and anxiety. These tools can be especially beneficial for individuals who may not have easy access to traditional therapy due to geographic, financial, or time constraints. While AI-driven interventions are not a replacement for human therapists, they can serve as a valuable supplement, providing support between sessions and reaching underserved populations.

Ongoing Monitoring and Support

AI can also play a crucial role in the ongoing monitoring and support of individuals with mental health conditions. Wearable devices and mobile applications equipped with AI algorithms can continuously track physiological and behavioral data, such as sleep patterns, physical activity, heart rate, and social interactions. By analyzing this data, AI can detect early signs of relapse or deterioration in mental health and alert patients and their caregivers to take proactive measures.

Moreover, AI can facilitate continuous communication between patients and healthcare providers. For example, digital platforms can enable patients to log their symptoms, medication adherence, and mood changes, providing clinicians with real-time data to make informed decisions about treatment adjustments. This continuous feedback loop can enhance patient engagement, improve treatment adherence, and ultimately lead to better mental health outcomes.

Ethical and Practical Considerations

While the potential of AI in mental health care is immense, it is essential to address ethical and practical considerations. Privacy and data security are paramount, given the sensitive nature of mental health information. Ensuring that AI systems are transparent, explainable, and free from biases is also crucial to maintain trust and efficacy.

Furthermore, the integration of AI into mental health care should be done in a way that complements, rather than replaces, human clinicians. The human touch remains indispensable in providing empathy, understanding, and personalized care that AI cannot fully replicate.

Conclusion

AI research holds the promise of transforming the treatment of mental illnesses, offering innovative solutions for diagnosis, personalized treatment, therapeutic interventions, and ongoing monitoring. By harnessing the power of AI, mental health care can become more accurate, efficient, and accessible, ultimately improving the lives of individuals struggling with mental health conditions. However, careful consideration of ethical and practical issues is necessary to ensure that these advancements are implemented in a responsible and beneficial manner. As AI continues to evolve, it will be exciting to see how it can further contribute to the field of mental health, providing hope and healing to millions around the world.

July 7 2023

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Independence Day was rather uneventful for me. I did a little something different to celebrate today. Didn’t watch war movies or go to a fireworks display (my city banned private ownership of fireworks). What I did do was binge watch the old History Channel mini series ‘The Men Who Built America.’ It was about the industrial revolution that really took off after the Civil War in my country. Series paid close attention to industries like railroads, oil, steel, electrical appliances, electricity generation, early automobiles, financials, etc. The individuals they paid close attention too, the Vanderbilts, Rockefellers, Carnegies, Morgans, Teslas, Edisons, Westinghouses, Fords, etc. I think the dude they had playing JP Morgan kinda looked like Robert Downey Jr. from the Iron Man movies. Even Robert Downey playing industrialist Tony Stark said he modeled his character on a less dorky Elon Musk.

Still haven’t heard from low income housing on my place. I’ve been on the waitlist for months now. I’m believing the horror stories about how sometimes it takes years for a place to open up. We obviously have an affordable housing shortage in my country. There is a HUGE demand for affordable housing. Why won’t be build it? We already have the tech to 3D print and pre fabricate millions of housing units. Seriously, who benefits from housing being unaffordable to working class and poor people? I sure don’t. What’s the point of developing all this science and technology in my country if we as a people refuse to use it. I would find it absolutely ironic if China and India became the new world superpowers using technology originally developed here in USA. But then, Europe became the world powers of the last 500 years using technology like gunpower, deep sea navigation, compasses, printing presses, paper, and even paper money pioneered by, guess who, China. History truly has an ironic sense of humor. I wonder how you say ‘Payback is a bitch’ in Mandarin Chinese.

Enough of my ranting. Been reading audiobooks A LOT lately. I just love listening to audiobooks while playing computer games. I’ve literally finished 10-hour audiobooks over a long weekend while playing Civilization, Total War, or Railroad Tycoon. Currently working on The Demon Haunted Universe by Carl Saga, Money: Master the Game by Anthony Robbins, and The 50th Law by Curtis “50 Cent” Jackson and Robert Greene. Yes I like to have multiple books going at the same time. Sure I sometimes never finish said books. But I don’t read to accomplish anything deeper than my own learning. Most of the books I own are nonfiction. Sure, a lot of great real life science was inspired by science fiction. But, growing up in the 1980s and 1990s, I was introduced to the genre of science fiction by The Terminator, The Matrix, Alien, Predator, Judge Dredd, etc. All of which present lousy futures that no one wants. I am convinced these shows are why most people are so fearful of technology and hate scientists and intellect so much. Being bombarded with these dystopian visions of the future REALLY soured me on science fiction but not science fact.

People think I’m insane for preferring non fiction to science fiction. Same people think I’m insane for liking economics, finance, and investing even though my math skills are average at best and awful in advanced math like calculus and statistics. Math and foreign languages have always been my blind spot as far as my academic pursuits go. Everything else I loved. My favorite subjects as a child were history and literature. I also liked biology and chemistry, but not as much as history and literature. Didn’t find out I loved economics, finance, investing, writing, etc. until I was in college. Even though college education prices are out of control, I found huge value in getting a bachelor’s degree. I got kicked out of the Masters in Business program because I couldn’t hack the advanced math. But I never wanted to be an accountant or a data analyst. Such subjects never interested me. Besides, AI can do most of that better than most humans already. AIs are getting really creepy good at stock picking too. I think that almost anything that has to do with massive amounts of math and information will probably get automated within the next ten to twenty years. I could even see medical diagnosing and researching being aided greatly by AI, thus reducing the need for doctors and researchers. I wouldn’t be surprised that the jobs that involve the human touch and individuality will be much larger in demand than they are now. I see the trades are already getting big again. I see lots of manufacturing is starting to move back to the USA, but even a good chunk of this will be automated. Even China is having problems finding work for their younger generations.

As far as my audiobooks go, I absolutely love the book Money: Master The Game. That is one finance book I would recommend to anyone just starting out in their career or anyone who wants to get their finances back under control. It’s also one of the first financial books I ever read that devotes an entire section to science, medicine, and tech advances. I guess the point of including a section on near future tech advances in a finance book is unique. It also combines my love of both economics and technology. Economics, technology, science, futurism, philosophy, history, and a little theology are all subjects I love to study. I know I don’t get paid any money from my studies, but it certainly satisfies my love of knowledge and wisdom. Being cured of schizophrenia and being able to use my variety of knowledge to benefit others and make myself and my family wealthy in the process, would be beyond my wildest dreams come true. Even if it doesn’t happen, I guess I have my knowledge and my blogs.

I should wrap this up. Until next time

Possibilities of Mass Technological Unemployment

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This going to be a long post, but please bear with me. I have a series of questions as a bit of a thought exercise and discussion that doesn’t often get discussed in public, not even by futurists: How soon do you think it will be before we see mass technological unemployment and the 21st century version of The Luddites?

Only in the last few months has the mainstream media started even talking about AI replacing and augmenting human workers even though I first read about in on futuretimeline.net back in 2013. Read Ray Kurzweil’s Singularity Is Near and all the works of Peter Diamandis shortly after. Neither of these guys, nor any other techies I’ve read in the last ten years, have discussed in detail how we as a civilization manage this transition.

Every mainstream economist seems to think automation will create more jobs than it eliminates because that’s the way it’s always been. High rollers like Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger previously said AI will amount to nothing, at least publicly. But these are the same guys who missed out on the computer and internet revolutions years ago. Their investors missed out on a lot of profits by these two not putting even a few percent of their holdings into Silcon Valley firms like Facebook, Twitter, Tesla, and Google when they first went public. I was telling everyone I knew to buy a few shares of these companies back then. I would have but forums like robin hood didn’t yet exist. God forbid peasants like me make a few bucks through the stock market.

Been trying to tell everyone I know about this ever since 2013. Most people outside my facebook techie groups, until recently, thought I was a hopeless dreamer at best and a liar at worst. It’s only a matter of time before the mainstream media starts discussing technological unemployment as a daily lead story. And I am convinced the public at large will panic in unexpected ways, like people hording toilet paper during covid. But far worse.

Been recently reading about The Luddites in early 19th century England burning down textile plants and killing factory managers. These skilled craftsmen were suddenly without means to support themselves even though they spent years working on their craft. Imagine if college educated white collar workers with tens of thousands in student loans and hundreds of thousands in mortgage debts find themselves unemployed by the millions over the course of several years?

Half of Americans already have less than 500 dollars of emergency savings. Almost half of current retirees have zero saved up besides social security in my country. Social security is a “pay as you go” system. Has been ever since it was instituted in the 1930s. And it’s funding comes from taxing current workers to pay for the retirees and disabled like myself. There are US government projections that the social security fund could run dry by 2035 if massive changes to the tax system and funding aren’t implemented. Since congress seems determined to fight among itself and do nothing, this could become a reality.

If this industrial revolution we are currently living through destroys more jobs than it creates, like some in my techie groups on facebook have been predicting for several years, how do we get the displaced workers and fear driven public on board? In my country, debt to gross domestic product (think annual wages if nations were individual workers) is already over 120 percent. Granted this isn’t as bad as many places, but my congress already wants to massively cut programs. That’s why it’s very possible the US could default on its loans eventually.

Over half of this money is owed to US citizens. Only 2 percent is owed China anymore. They, along with dozens of other nations, have been slowly getting out over the last several years. So even foreigners know something is fishy about US money. Discussions on raising taxes haven’t gone anywhere for decades. We’ve actually been lowering taxes for years. My countrymen still complain about taxes even though are tax rates are lower than most developed countries. In theory, we can print money as long as people are willing to us it. Granted that’s how hyperinflation happens (meaning money becomes worthless). It happened even in the very advanced nation of Germany in the 1920s. Currently happening in Argentina, Turkey, among others. That economic collapse ultimately resulted in the Nazi Party taking power. Don’t think it can’t happen again in other rich and advanced nations. I’ve been scared of something like this happening in my own country ever since I read ‘1984’ and ‘Fahrenheit 451’ twenty five years ago. I’m more scared of it than ever now.

How do we handle the displaced hundreds of millions of workers who simply don’t have the skills to level up or self-educate? Do we try to institute a UBI system with our current economics and politics? Knowing my countrymen like I do, this will probably not be popular even if 50 percent of the workforce loses their jobs to automation. We can’t even get Universal Healthcare or High-Speed Rail even though most developed countries have had these for decades.

Do we drop the prices on everything so even people living on part time gig work and welfare can afford the basics? Do private foundations pick up where government can’t go? Do we just put 3D printers in every home, vertical farms in every town, and make money as unnecessary as possible?

The ‘Not In My Backyard’ attitude is strong in my nation. We’ve known we have a shortage in affordable housing for years and we still won’t build cheap housing in most places. Personally, I’d rather live next door to a nuclear power plant than a cattle yard or oil refinery. Can we solve homelessness with rapid 3D printed homes and just sell these homes for cheap or even outright just give them away? Knowing my countrymen’s attitudes towards the homeless and poor, this doesn’t look like that will fly either even though we already have the tech to make this work. Most people in my society simply have no empathy towards the struggle of others until tragedy effects them directly. It’s why we had over one million people die from covid even though we were among the first to rapidly produce vaccines and effective treatments. A significant chunk of the populace, including most people I personally know, still feel lockdowns and mask mandates were a violation of personal freedoms. This is the case even though most people in my social circle know at least one person who died from covid. Some people are epically heartless and soulless. And most people in my social circles are regular church attenders.

I don’t know the answers to any of these. I haven’t seen any of this discussed by the public at large. This isn’t even on most politicians’ radar. Andrew Yang discussed this in 2020 only to get one percent of the primaries votes and dismissed as a communist. I still remember the press and his political rivals dismissing him as Comrade Yang.

This isn’t the first time a fringe candidate was dismissed but years later proven right. In 1992, Ross Perot warned that globalization and free trade would destroy the middle class in America and most developed nations. He was dismissed as a crank by everyone from CNN to Saturday Night Live. Sadly, he was proven right years after the fact. We can’t count on most governments as they are decades behind the curve. It wasn’t until recently that the Biden administration appointed an “AI czar.” Remains to be seen if the incoming Trump administration will do likewise.

They are about ten years too late. I’m interested in hearing how other nations are planning on dealing with this. I truly believe we can have a great future as a species where even the poorest of poor people live well. But we seem to have no plans to manage the transition. Any thoughts? I always enjoy hearing from my readers.

Possibilities of Mass Technological Unemployment

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This going to be a long post, but please bear with me. I have a series of questions as a bit of a thought exercise and discussion that doesn’t often get discussed in public, not even by futurists: How soon do you think it will be before we see mass technological unemployment and the 21st century version of The Luddites?

Only in the last few months has the mainstream media started even talking about AI replacing and augmenting human workers even though I first read about in on futuretimeline.net back in 2013. Read Ray Kurzweil’s Singularity Is Near and all the works of Peter Diamandis shortly after. Neither of these guys, nor any other techies I’ve read in the last ten years, have discussed in detail how we as a civilization manage this transition.

Every mainstream economist seems to think automation will create more jobs than it eliminates because that’s the way it’s always been. High rollers like Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger previously said AI will amount to nothing, at least publicly. But these are the same guys who missed out on the computer and internet revolutions years ago. Their investors missed out on a lot of profits by these two not putting even a few percent of their holdings into Silcon Valley firms like Facebook, Twitter, Tesla, and Google when they first went public. I was telling everyone I knew to buy a few shares of these companies back then. I would have but forums like robin hood didn’t yet exist. God forbid peasants like me make a few bucks through the stock market.

Been trying to tell everyone I know about this ever since 2013. Most people outside my facebook techie groups, until recently, thought I was a hopeless dreamer at best and a liar at worst. It’s only a matter of time before the mainstream media starts discussing technological unemployment as a daily lead story. And I am convinced the public at large will panic in unexpected ways, like people hording toilet paper during covid. But far worse.

Been recently reading about The Luddites in early 19th century England burning down textile plants and killing factory managers. These skilled craftsmen were suddenly without means to support themselves even though they spent years working on their craft. Imagine if college educated white collar workers with tens of thousands in student loans and hundreds of thousands in mortgage debts find themselves unemployed by the millions over the course of several years?

Half of Americans already have less than 500 dollars of emergency savings. Almost half of current retirees have zero saved up besides social security in my country. Social security is a “pay as you go” system. Has been ever since it was instituted in the 1930s. And it’s funding comes from taxing current workers to pay for the retirees and disabled like myself. There are US government projections that the social security fund could run dry by 2035 if massive changes to the tax system and funding aren’t implemented. Since congress seems determined to fight among itself and do nothing, this could become a reality.

If this industrial revolution we are currently living through destroys more jobs than it creates, like some in my techie groups on facebook have been predicting for several years, how do we get the displaced workers and fear driven public on board? In my country, debt to gross domestic product (think annual wages if nations were individual workers) is already over 120 percent. Granted this isn’t as bad as many places, but my congress already wants to massively cut programs. That’s why it’s very possible the US could default on its loans eventually.

Over half of this money is owed to US citizens. Only 2 percent is owed China anymore. They, along with dozens of other nations, have been slowly getting out over the last several years. So even foreigners know something is fishy about US money. Discussions on raising taxes haven’t gone anywhere for decades. We’ve actually been lowering taxes for years. My countrymen still complain about taxes even though are tax rates are lower than most developed countries. In theory, we can print money as long as people are willing to us it. Granted that’s how hyperinflation happens (meaning money becomes worthless). It happened even in the very advanced nation of Germany in the 1920s. Currently happening in Argentina, Turkey, among others. That economic collapse ultimately resulted in the Nazi Party taking power. Don’t think it can’t happen again in other rich and advanced nations. I’ve been scared of something like this happening in my own country ever since I read ‘1984’ and ‘Fahrenheit 451’ twenty five years ago. I’m more scared of it than ever now.

How do we handle the displaced hundreds of millions of workers who simply don’t have the skills to level up or self-educate? Do we try to institute a UBI system with our current economics and politics? Knowing my countrymen like I do, this will probably not be popular even if 50 percent of the workforce loses their jobs to automation. We can’t even get Universal Healthcare or High-Speed Rail even though most developed countries have had these for decades.

Do we drop the prices on everything so even people living on part time gig work and welfare can afford the basics? Do private foundations pick up where government can’t go? Do we just put 3D printers in every home, vertical farms in every town, and make money as unnecessary as possible?

The ‘Not In My Backyard’ attitude is strong in my nation. We’ve known we have a shortage in affordable housing for years and we still won’t build cheap housing in most places. Personally, I’d rather live next door to a nuclear power plant than a cattle yard or oil refinery. Can we solve homelessness with rapid 3D printed homes and just sell these homes for cheap or even outright just give them away? Knowing my countrymen’s attitudes towards the homeless and poor, this doesn’t look like that will fly either even though we already have the tech to make this work. Most people in my society simply have no empathy towards the struggle of others until tragedy effects them directly. It’s why we had over one million people die from covid even though we were among the first to rapidly produce vaccines and effective treatments. A significant chunk of the populace, including most people I personally know, still feel lockdowns and mask mandates were a violation of personal freedoms. This is the case even though most people in my social circle know at least one person who died from covid. Some people are epically heartless and soulless. And most people in my social circles are regular church attenders.

I don’t know the answers to any of these. I haven’t seen any of this discussed by the public at large. This isn’t even on most politicians’ radar. Andrew Yang discussed this in 2020 only to get one percent of the primaries votes and dismissed as a communist. I still remember the press and his political rivals dismissing him as Comrade Yang.

This isn’t the first time a fringe candidate was dismissed but years later proven right. In 1992, Ross Perot warned that globalization and free trade would destroy the middle class in America and most developed nations. He was dismissed as a crank by everyone from CNN to Saturday Night Live. Sadly, he was proven right years after the fact. We can’t count on most governments as they are decades behind the curve. It wasn’t until recently that the Biden administration appointed an “AI czar.” Remains to be seen if the incoming Trump administration will do likewise.

They are about ten years too late. I’m interested in hearing how other nations are planning on dealing with this. I truly believe we can have a great future as a species where even the poorest of poor people live well. But we seem to have no plans to manage the transition. Any thoughts? I always enjoy hearing from my readers.

Yet Even More of What’s Been on My Mind Since I Moved to Oklahoma City

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Talked to an old childhood friend earlier tonight. She was telling me stories about the horrors she deals with everyday at her job in a pharmacy in a college town in the midwest. Caught one of her coworkers smoking pot while on the clock recently. Her boss did nothing. No write up, no drug test, no firing, no verbal reprimand. I’ve been listening to horror stories about working in customer service from my friends, people on reddit forms, youtube videos, etc. for the last ten years. I have a few stories of my own, like getting told off by the owner of the McDonalds I worked at my very first day on the job when I was 16. I told him it was my first day and he said, “I don’t care.” None of my managers and coworkers stood up for me. I was fired a month later supposedly because I wasn’t quick enough on the grill. And yet, I saw coworkers eating on the job, literally taking burgers and chicken out of the storage and eating them while they were working.

That’s mild compared to what I saw at other jobs. I would go into detail but no one believes me. Even at the factory job I had I was threatened with death when my work was suffering because of sleep deprivation. I worked the 11pm to 7am shift, five nights a week for less than 10 bucks an hour in 2006. My work was suffering and one of my line mates yelled at me, “Quit f***ing around or I will kill you godd*****it.” Everyone on my line saw it. No one reported it. I had talked to my foreman about previous problems with this same coworker. Nothing was done. So I knew nothing was going to be done in this case either. So I went to the bathroom, told my foreman I had gotten sick and needed to take the rest of the night off. The next day I put in my request for a transfer to day shift. It was immediately denied. So I quit. Turned in my ID badge and safety equipment right there. The sad thing was, the job itself wasn’t stressful at all, certainly not as stressful as working with the public every day. While it was physically demanding, I could still do it because I wasn’t dealing with unpredictable public every day. But I couldn’t sleep during the days very well. After two months of sleep deprivation, my work was suffering and I was becoming a danger to myself and others.

I could do that job easily even if it was physically demanding. The setup sucked as did the people I was working for. If they would have just worked with me a little, I would have been at the job probably for years. That is, until I developed heart failure. Had I been able to stay at the job, I would have never had to apply for disability even with schizophrenia as I would have been covered by my employer’s health care insurance. Would have also been eligible for a 401(k). I found out in college I had a talent for stock picking and investing. I would be a hell of a lot better off personally and a financially viable member of the American workforce for years if not for the short sightedness of my employers. Needless to say I wasn’t surprised at all when I found out that same factory shut down like ten years later and moved it’s manufacturing. I could work in the right circumstances. I was never given a chance. And because I lived in a rural area, I had a lack of options. I didn’t quit work because I was lazy and didn’t want to work. I quit because the setup sucked, management treated workers worse than animals, and the customers were even worse. And that was in the 2000s.

I left my last permanent job in 2012. It was a great job for me even with my disability. I didn’t go full time because I was afraid of losing my disability insurance and full time was never available. I left because I actually did the math one night and found out for every dollar I made through that job, I lost seventy one cents via lost benefits and increased rent (I was on a sliding scale in low income housing). That was before taxes. And to think people complain about even sales tax of 6 percent.

I stay on disability even though I have a talent for stock picking and investing because Universal Healthcare isn’t a thing in my country. Even though Universal Healthcare works in most European Union countries, Japan, and Canada, I fear it would never work in America even if it was instituted. Seeing my dad’s experience with the VA makes me think that Universal Healthcare would be worse than even the mess we have now. We don’t even have decent mass transit here. People were all up in arms over Obamacare. And that was just health insurance, not universal health care. I still remember people like Sarah Palin talking about “death panels” on live tv. Universal Healthcare will probably never be instituted in America (at least not in my lifetime), but people will actively fight against it even if mass unemployment comes via automation (like I fear it will). We still have the Puritan work ethic and the idea that people that don’t work for money are worthless. As if God put a dollar sign on everything in the Cosmos. Heck, people are still fighting against renewable energy and electric cars in my country even though it’s already cheaper than fossil fuels in most cases (even without subsidies) AND already makes up 20 percent of our power grid. I chuckle when I think on the fact that more renewable was installed in my country under the Trump administration than in any other previous administration. He howled about bringing back coal jobs (even though mining jobs were largely automated even back then) and wind turbines causing cancer. We still pulled off this feat with the US being the only nation to pull out of the Paris Climate Accord. It’s the economics. Even if Climate Change isn’t a thing, the energy revolution is underway because it’s now cost effective. Granted, not as fast as the Al Gores and Greenpeace people of the world would like. “It’s the economy stupid” to quote James Carville.

People like to complain about how “no one wants to work anymore.” My dad does this occasionally. Makes me kind of annoyed every time I hear him say this. Yet, most of the jobs that are readily available are part time (that’s how most fast food and retail gets around paying benefits), and the hours are unpredictable. I explain this to people, but I just as well be speaking to myself. About the only people who get it are the people who have worked such jobs in the last twenty years.

In 2023 America and European Union, with our level of technology and know how, you shouldn’t have to be in the medical field, an engineer, in finance, or in the trades just to afford a small house. Don’t tell me, “be an Entrepeneur” either. Most people aren’t cut out to be self employed. Most new businesses fail within the first five years. Serfs in medieval times were hardly self employed even though they grew most of their own food, built most of their own shanties, and protected by the lords of their lands. Most people can no longer grow their own food or build their own houses. With our technology, we can get away with only a small percentage of the work force being farmers and carpenters. My dad’s dental office would have failed in the first five years back in the 1980s had my mom not been working as a nurse. In fact, my dad tried to get back into the Air Force as a dentist in the early 1980s when we were struggling. But they refused to take him because he was on blood pressure meds. I think some of the standards have changed since then.

Most places are now doing away with work from home, so a worker can’t even count on a move to a cheaper rural area and work via internet even though we have the tech to make it work for the most part. Covid proved that. And it would revitalize dying rural communities like the one I left a few months ago. I’ve been reading about people leaving California and the East Coast since the start of covid. But people have been leaving rural areas since at least the 1930s.

Large tech firms like IBM, Meta, Google, and Amazon are laying off highly paid technicians and replacing them with AI. I’ve been saying this would happen since 2013. Other than my futurist groups on facebook, the only people who believed me were my best friend and my mom. Looks like the STEM degrees people were hyping when I was in college are no longer safe. Even now, over 40 percent of scientists and engineers in Silicon Valley are immigrants. Many of them aren’t safe anymore either. I never want to hear “no one wants to work” ever again. The fact that over 30 percent of workers between the ages of 20 and 39 are working more than one job proves that. That’s the “triggered snowflake” millennial generation.

Now, everyone is telling these kids, “college is worthless”, “join the military” and “go into the trades” and that “some plumbers make more than most lawyers and doctors.” Fools don’t realize they are going to create the same bubble and wage crash in the trades in less than fifteen years. Those jobs will get oversaturated if college stays expensive and automation keeps taking jobs even though trades won’t be able to be automated probably not for decades, if ever. Even some medical and some STEM jobs are no longer safe.

Speaking of the army, a lot of traditional soldier work is now being done by drones, cyber hackers, and robots. The US Army was using robotic pack mules as early as Afghanistan. I think it was Boston Dynamics that demonstrated a drone on treads that could shoot faster and straighter than any human. And that was circa 2010. Besides, modern warfare doesn’t utilize thousands of soldiers on a battlefield, like World War 2. Much of the fighting is done by highly trained special forces, air strikes, drones, etc. Ukraine is proving with advanced drone tech and guided missles they can hold their own against a vastly larger nation like Russia. Just a few days ago, Ukraine shot down a Russian hypersonic missle with American Patriot missles. Patriot missles have been around since at least the early 1990s. Last I heard, over 190,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in Ukraine since the beginning of the invasion (according to some estimates). So not even the military needs as many young recruits as they did in previous eras. That’s why a draft wasn’t issued in the years after 9/11. Not only is this not your grandfather’s Vietnam, it’s not even my generation’s Iraq.

College got too expensive for most people without going into debt. Most jobs could be learned in a year or two with on the job training and don’t even need a college degree except that most employers require it. Artificial barrier to entry if you ask me. My two best friends from college are in their forties and they are still paying off student loans. One is a high school teacher and the other trained as an IT guy but got laid off from his firm even though he had been there for almost ten years and was classified as an essential worker during covid. And people still have the gall to complain about no one wanting to work or a lack of loyalty.

Workers have been losing protections that were taken for granted by previous eras for decades. People know they are poor. Even people in third world countries know they are poor because they have smart phones with youtube and TikTok. Speaking of third world countries, those countries that some of my countrymen and politicians dismiss as “s*** holes” are regarded as “potential clients” by our Chinese rivals. Matter of perspective I suppose. People know they are being screwed by greedy sociopath bosses and politicians who no longer care about the voters. That’s why I said greed will kill capitalism and democracy faster than kids reading Karl Marx and Mao Zedong. I have zero patience for people who say “we were poor but didn’t know it and were happy.” You were happy because you didn’t know you how bad you were getting screwed over. Even kids in Africa know they are getting screwed. Knowledge is power. Peasants with knowledge are dangerous to abusive tyrants. Tyrants fear the masses getting enlightened as much as they fear an armed populace. And you know what, they should be scared if history teaches us anything. Knowledge can’t be unlearned. There is no going back now.

The fact is I make less than $1000 a month from all sources, get my meds paid for by social security (which would cost over $3000 a month without insurance), eat three meals a day, have a roof over my head, and am suffering from schizophrenia, heart failure and am wheelchair bound. People tell me I am lucky that I can’t work. Sadly, they are right. I am luckier than anyone working the vast majority of service and manufacturing and farming jobs even though I am making poverty level wages, lost my career, lost any shot at a family, and will probably die earlier than most of them due to my heart failure. Welcome to the desert of current day reality. We are underachieving as a society and a species.

More Overnight Musings

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Just today, I read an article on CNN.com that it’s forecasted by the World Economic Forum over 14 million jobs worldwide could be lost to automation by 2027. While I am glad that even traditional news outlets like CNN and 60 Minutes (when they interviewed the CEO of Google about AI and automation a few weeks ago) are starting to report this, I am disappointed that it seems like none of our elected officials (at least not here in USA) are discussing this. Back in the 2020 election, the only candidate that even addressed this is Andrew Yang. I highly recommend watching his interview with Joe Rogan on youtube even if it is a few years old. I also recommend Rogan’s interviews with Elon Musk.

I am convinced that mass technological unemployment is coming by the early 2030s, at least in developed countries. I’ve been convinced of this since 2013. As much as I love economics as a subject, I haven’t seen many economists discuss even the possible problems this could cause. Traditionally, automation has created more jobs than it destroyed and lead to enough resources and revenue being produced that social safety nets like unemployment insurance, public education, social security pensions, disability insurance, and Medicare could be funded. But, will this always be the case? If not, how do we adapt our society and cultural norms if it comes to where we have a society where less than half the working age citizens can even find employment that pays livable wages? Seems like a lot of people are at least 20 years behind on what the tech is already doing, let alone what it can do in the near future. Politicians are even worse, at least in my country. Then again, I don’t look to politicians to solve problems related to tech and science. Most simply can’t as most are lawyers by trade, they aren’t trained to solve problems related to tech or psychological problems associated with a loss of meaning and purpose.

Yes, tech has made it easier to communicate and learn new skills. Yet, has it made us happier and more hopeful overall? Probably not. Physically, our lives are far less taxing than even our grandparents. Yet, they are also more mentally stressful. Maybe that is why we are seeing more cases of mental illness, mass shootings, extremist politics, doomsday preppers becoming normal, and conspiracy theories becoming mainstream. Our Stone Age hunter brains are simply not adapted to dealing with issues like loneliness, information overload, abundance of resources yet lack of meaning and purpose. The human mind reacts to things like getting cut off in traffic or dealing with internet bullies the same way our Stone Age ancestors dealt with tigers and bears. Fight or flight may have been great survival strategies for most of our history, but it’s now causing us needless anguish and pain. I think one of the main reasons most people I know are nostalgic for past decades is that the world is changing technologically and culturally faster than most human minds can process and adapt to.

I don’t know how many of my readers have heard of the concept of Technological Singularity. But it’s a term for a hypothetical time in the future when our science and technology advance to the point where the changes are too fast for the human mind to comprehend and civilization is changed in ways that can’t be reversed. Some futurists, like Ray Kurzweil (chief AI engineer at Google) are convinced it will happen by mid century. Others, like Michio Kaku, think it won’t happen until the 22nd century. Others are convinced it won’t happen until centuries from now. Others are convinced it’s not going to happen ever. I imagine if our great grandparents could see the world of 2023, they would think “Aren’t y’all already there?” While I’m not necessarily worried about a Terminator or Matrix scenario, I am worried that most people simply won’t be able to mentally and emotionally keep up with changing skills and careers every few years. Being obsolete (at least in terms of job skills) is more likely than war against the machines I think, which will cause lots of problems on it’s own. Even I can barely keep up with just the news of changes in tech, culture, and geopolitics and I have the time to research these because my disability pension takes care of my basic needs. I think mainstream media is doing the public a disservice by not devoting more time to science and tech advancements. That’s why I haven’t watched 24 hour cable news since 2007.

Some people I know can’t do a proper Google search, get frustrated with automated customer service, and hate self check out at the Wal Mart. Yet I know children as young as five years old who can already use computers and smartphones, I know children who can already write computer programs and games, I know teenagers whose knowledge of internet, 3D printing, and robotics I probably will never be able to match. I worry about the widening knowledge gap even more than the widening wealth gap. Personally, I don’t bother with self check outs because I get everything delivered to my house. I even had Amazon delivery when I lived in the long term care facility. I guess my opinion on self check outs taking away jobs, well, people said the same things about self service gas stations in the 1970s and gasoline powered automobiles taking away jobs from horse stable workers in the early 1900s. Besides, delivery drivers and warehouse workers will probably eventually get automated too. As much as I love my parents and have known some really cool elderly people over the years, I fear the cynics may have been right when they said ‘science advances only one funeral at a time.’ I think the same could be said about cultural norms and social attitudes.

Speaking of funerals, there are now doctors and scientists who are researching longevity treatments and even age reversal medications. They’ve already been able to double the life span of lab mice and even reverse some aging in mice already. But this tech creeps me more than even book banning and cancel culture. Part of me hopes they fail, like everyone who has ever looked for the Fountain of Youth. I just fear that if we are successful in finding longevity medications that we will have a stagnation in culture and science. We already have wage and economic stagnation. Also, the gaps between the generations and the socioeconomic classes will become impossible to navigate. OK Boomer and Triggered Snowflake could just be a warm up for what’s to come in the next few generations. I mean, we already have 80 year old politicians and businessmen who obviously don’t need the money and past their prime who refuse to retire. I guess that power and prestige are just that addictive. I wouldn’t know. Maybe I’ve been watching too much Altered Carbon and Black Mirror. But even the Bible and ancient folklore talks about elders who lived for over 900 years. Maybe that really is possible with the right treatments. We are only in the beginnings of a new industrial and scientific revolution. Our institutions like politics, education, organized religions, legal, etc. have lost the confidence of the public at large. I think it’s because we haven’t figured out how to adapt to this new world, at least not yet. We’re just figuring this out as we go like with every other revolution. It could get real bumpy before we adapt. Buckle up.

These are just a few of the thoughts I’ve had in recent weeks even though I’ve been studying these topics for years. I am convinced that many people are not prepared for the advances coming within the next several years. We weren’t even ready for the covid pandemic even though pandemics have happened many times over the centuries. I don’t think we as citizens, our politics, or our institutions are ready for what could happen in terms of science and tech that we are already researching. There’s a Chinese saying that goes something like ‘May you live in interesting times.’ Could be both a blessing and a curse at the same time.

Middle of the Night Musings About Tech, Economics, and the Near Future of Humanity

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I’m up in the middle of the night, again. My mind has been far more active than what was normal the last several months. Maybe the move to a large urban center has stimulated my mind. Maybe getting my heart problems under control made me more hopeful. Maybe seeing my parents everyday has given me more food for thought. Whatever it is, I’m enjoying these new changes.

I saw my new general practitioner a couple days ago. I’m guessing he’s in his forties. I liked him right away. I liked the nurses and office staff too. Even though I don’t have my new insurance card yet, the office lady was able to find all my info pretty quickly. I’ve found medical staff, social workers, and even fast food employees to be more helpful here in Oklahoma City than anywhere else I’ve ever lived. It’s definitely a change living in a place that people actually are moving to in large numbers. It makes me feel like I’ve officially joined the 21st century rather than just read about it online.

Been reading a lot of articles about tech advancements since I moved to Oklahoma. Some of this is advancing faster than even I would have thought. Ten years ago, I never thought I could talk history and economics with an AI Chatbot easier than I could with most people. Certainly not as soon as 2023. And I use a free low end service, it’s not even ChatGPT as far as I can tell. And the fact that people are already using chatbots to aid in the office jobs and even work multiple full times, I would have not imagined that even in 2020. Makes me think the possibility to make workers far more productive with AI is already here. It makes me think that some companies will automate as much of their white collar staff as possible if they aren’t already. Much like blue collar factory jobs were outsourced and automated in the 1980s, I think the same thing is starting to happen in office and tech jobs. I can now understand why some plumbers, electricians, and welders make more money than some lawyers and accountants.

I imagine that if AI and automation become as big as I think, that alone will make college education pointless for most people. I could see more apprentices and on the job training. We already have that to a degree with unpaid internships. Personally, I think unpaid internships are a modern day version of serfdom. Even most academic instruction is done by graduate assistants making poverty level wages and no benefits or tenure, at least for undergrad. It’s one of the reasons I didn’t get a career in academia. For awhile I was pursuing a career as a college professor. I wanted to teach investing, finance, and economics. These were my favorite business subjects in college. But that was until I realized that the majority of college professors aren’t full time, don’t have benefits or tenure. And since I wanted to teach more than do research, it wasn’t for me. I also didn’t want to spend years in college racking up a small fortune in student loans to get a PhD and do obscure research that only a handful of people would actually acknowledge. Even my small blog has more readers than most doctoral dissertations.

Another thing I didn’t like about working in academia is that I felt too much pressure to specialize my knowledge. Personally, I think specialization is too narrow for most workers nowadays. As fast as technology is advancing, a worker starting out today is going to change careers at least a few times. The days of getting a job at age 22 and staying with the same company until age 65 are over. I think that businesses today would be wise in hiring more Humanities students and philosophers, especially AI firms. Not only most employers no longer that loyal, the tech advances and economic changes mean that they can’t afford to be as loyal as they were 100 years ago. The world is simply changing too fast to ensure life long employment. Life long employment was a bigger deal in Japan and Korea than even the USA. I try to tell my teenage nephews and niece that people like their dad and mom who stay with the same company for over twenty years after graduation are not the norm. The only career advice I give to any teenager is ‘be flexible and never stop learning.’ Some of the most lucrative careers in 2023 didn’t even exist in 2000. I think the most lucrative businesses and careers of 2045 haven’t even been invented yet. I also wouldn’t be surprised if the world had its first trillionaire by then, and probably from an industry that only now on the drawing board.

Not only do I think we are entering a future world of mass technological unemployment, I think in some ways we are already starting to see it in real time. Big tech firms have already laid off almost a quarter million workers since mid 2022 even though most of the firms doing the layoffs are profitable. Even tech companies in China and India are laying off some of their tech workers. Youth unemployment among recent college graduates in China is a major problem, though they don’t have the student loan burdens most American students have. I also think real estate and land prices will only continue to rise even if interest rates keep going up, which they probably will to combat inflation and encourage saving and investing. The days of cheap credit are over. So are the days of cheap commodities like oil and food. 3 dollar a gallon gas, 6 dollars for a dozen eggs, and one million dollars for starter homes are only the beginning. And, yet, it doesn’t have to be this way. At least not permanently.

I imagine eventually science and tech advances will make everything cheaper much the same way electronics and computers get better and cheaper as the years go on. I mean, we can already 3D print everything from tools to houses, to even guns (so abolishing the 2nd amendment will do no good). I think even chemicals can now be 3D printed. Eventually we will be able to function in a world were less than half of working age people have full time jobs. I think that reality is already technically feasible though not economically, politically, or culturally feasible. It’s definitely not feasible economically in most developing countries. It’s definitely not culturally feasible in nations that find meaning and purpose in careers. I think technological unemployment will be far tougher for the US to adapt to than most developed nations because we value employment so much and don’t believe in the social safety nets that some nations have already implemented generations ago. I see it getting really ugly in the US because of our attitudes towards work, education, and social welfare. I think the homeless problems, prison overcrowding, working poor, political divisions between the Left and Right, drug abuse, mental health crisis, and rates of suicide getting worse in the next 20 years. So much so that I think that America won’t be the richest and most influential country in the world come 2030. I don’t think we will collapse into Mad Max (even though some of my prepper friends are actually hoping and praying for this), I think the world of America being the only superpower no longer exists.

I think eventually we will achieve a world where even people on poverty level wages can have a decent life free from starvation and access to decent health care. We already have more overweight people than starving people by a nearly 3 to 1 margin. Obesity is no longer just an American problem. In fact, for most of history being overweight was considered a sign of wealth and prosperity. Now people consider it a sign of poverty and a lack of discipline. But I think it will be long and painful process to get to that world. I doubt I’ll live to see it.

I know it spooked a lot of people, myself included, when the World Economic Form was talking about a Great Reset and “owning nothing and being happy.” Debt resets and failures of currencies are nothing new. Even the Old Testament talks about debt jubilation every so often. Nowadays, some people would say you were a dirty socialist or commie for even suggesting such a thing. Maybe God Himself was a socialist in ancient times. The Founding Fathers thought that conquering a nation via debts was as dangerous as standing armies. Now that everyone is in debt to everyone else, and we as nations and individuals are needlessly suffering, the wisdom of their words concerning debts are more obvious than ever. A debt reset is probably the only way we are going to not saddle those yet born with unpayable debt. Besides, it’s not like our money is real as most countries went off gold standards decades ago. And, it’s not like we owe money to aliens or God. We owe these quadrillions to ourselves, not other species.

Going back to having most countries on some kind of gold standard wouldn’t be as tough as most people think since almost all gold mined in the last 6000 years still exists. We’re not burning through nearly as fast as we are oil, natural gas, or even rare earths. Granted it would severely jack up the price of gold and make countries and individuals that have lots of gold suddenly wealthy. In theory, we can print money forever even though said money would have far less value. Some countries are talking about having their own blockchain crypto currencies tethered to some kind of gold standard. In theory, you could make anything be a stable currency providing it was limited and people would accept it. Things like beads, salt, sea shells, livestock, grain, and even dried yak dung have been used as currency over the centuries. Cigarettes and candy have been popular currencies in prisons for generations. Even prisoners believe in a means of exchange. Even if we have a world wide economic collapse, we will recover. At least as long as we don’t engage in a nuclear war.

I guess that’s enough for one post. I actually enjoy writing these types of posts where I branch off from mental illness. It gives me an outlet for all the knowledge I’ve acquired over the years. Besides, I don’t believe in specialization. The world needs more renaissance people (or at least aspiring renaissance people) than it did when I was growing up. I think we need more generalists and people who can learn fast because of how fast our tech is advancing and our culture is changing. We are living in a new industrial revolution as I write this. It’s going to get even more interesting in the next thirty years. Stay tuned.